BrewBrain Sports Investing

I just realized I’ve forgotten to update the past two days.  Real life intrudes….

Anyway, from memory, I have:

Jets -3.1

Oregon State +5ish (I know I took them and points)

NBA, I have San Antonio, Houston and Miami, but I can’t remember what my lines are.  San Antonio and Houston were marginal edges, Miami was bigger.

Yesterday was a good day in the NBA, but I’ve scaled back my wager size significantly.  The winning percentages for favorites v. dogs has not fallen into line with last year’s numbers, and I’m losing.  Something to keep an eye on.

Yesterday went well with both Milwaukee and Golden State winning.  Philly almost pulled it out against the Mavs.  +62.55% on the day.

Today:

1-Dec BB ML

Washington 450
Toronto -450

Boston 128
Charlotte -128

Phoenix -450
NewYork 450

GoldenState 1300
Denver -1300

Miami 450
Portland -450

NewOrleans 1100
LALakers -1100

I have Toronto, Charlotte, Phoenix and Portland.

Another successful week that was very disappointing.  I finished 9-7 after sweeping the morning games Sunday.  Threw up almost an airball in later games and Monday night, costing me a pool I’m in.

Overall, 96-80 for 54.55%.  So far so good.

Sorry, forgot to grab my numbers this morning, but I at least know the teams I’m playing:

Money Lines - Milwaukee, Philly, Golden State.

Results yesterday were essentially a push.  I think I lost a couple bucks.   I’m glad that week is over.

9-9.  Unscientifically, it felt like I needed an awful lot of luck to reach .500.

Well, yesterday wansn’t supposed to be a huge day with 4 dogs and a favorite, but I took a -100%.  Oh well, on to today:

29-Nov BB ML

Atlanta 145
Detroit -145

Phoenix 145
Toronto -145

Memphis 145
LAClippers -145

Orlando -285
NewYork 285

Boston -145
Miami 145

Philadelphia 500
SanAntonio -500

Houston 177
OklahomaCity -177

Minnesota 1350
Denver -1350

NewJersey 1050
LALakers -1050

NewOrleans 441
Sacramento -441

I need to turn this brutal week around.

Here’s today’s custom lines:

28-Nov BB ML

Dallas 100
Cleveland 100

Charlotte 500
Washington -500

Orlando 179
Milwaukee -179

Portland -130
Utah 130

LALakers 542
GoldenState -542

I’ve got Dallas, Washington, Milwaukee, Portland and Golden State. Hopefully Portland will remember they have a game today.

Yuck.

Both of my heavy favorites lost today.  I predicted I’d have a big favorite go down soon, but I didn’t need it to happen like this.

Winners: Charlotte, Dallas, Sacramento.
Losers: Miami, Houston, Portland

3-3, but the wrong games hit. -63.36% on the day.

There is always tomorrow. 5 games on the slate.

I added Dallas and Portland as plays tonight after deciding I should go as low as 5% edge.  That’s roughly the edge I have so far in football, so I’ll take it in baskets as well.

Portland is a HUGE outlay for me at -900ish, but numbes is numbers….

about bad beats ever again I suppose, unless I recognize luck swinging my way.  With 2 seconds left and on their own side of the field, the Colorado QB launches a bomb (I assume of the Hail Mary variety) gets completed for the spread covering touchdown.  Of course I had that baked into my numbers.

Well, I hope this is not a sign of things to come.  Out of the 12 NBA games today, I found value in the money lines in only four of them.  Here ya go:

27-Nov BB ML

Cleveland 129
Charlotte -129

Atlanta -177
Philadelphia 177

Washington 591
Miami -591

Toronto 544
Boston -544

Dallas -177
Indiana 177

LAClippers 177
Detroit -177

SanAntonio 544
Houston -544

NewYork 1300
Denver -1300

Milwaukee 177
OklahomaCity -177

Phoenix -436
Minnesota 436

Memphis 2600
Portland -2600

NewJersey 274
Sacramento -274

I have Charlotte, Miami, Houston and Sacramento. The rest I found less than a 10% edge, which is the minimum I look for.

Good luck today!

Lovely second half by the Hawks tonight.  Puke City, USA.  They should be denied turkey dinner.  Gross.  Just gross.

So, let’s see.  They took a 12 point lead into the locker room and got blown out in the game by 17.  They scored 25 points in the second half.  Good job boys.

Luckily, I’ve played about 1.75 billion hands of poker and I’m used to getting crushed while holding the best hand.  Poo, as they say, happens.

12 games on tomorrow’s schedule, along with a bunch of college football.  Should be a fun day.  I’ll try to get the lines up as early as possible tomorrow.

Oh, by the way, -100% today

Turkey Day basketball.  My custom money lines:

26-Nov ML Need

Orlando 281
Atlanta -281

Chicago 281
Utah -281

Both games have the same line. I have Atlanta. No value in the other game.

Happy Thanksgiving everybody!

Getting down to the end here.  My spreads for Week 13 are below.  I’m playing favorable spreads I can get at -115 or better.

Teams Spread

BostonCollege -2.3
Maryland 2.3

WakeForest -1
Duke 1

VirginiaTech -12.4
Virginia 12.4

NorthCarolina -7.8
NCState 7.8

Rutgers -5.3
Louisville 5.3

Pittsburgh -7.1
WestVirginia 7.1

Syracuse 5.5
Connecticut -5.5

Alabama -9.6
Auburn 9.6

Tennessee -3.6
Kentucky 3.6

Mississippi -5.2
MississippiState 5.2

Arkansas 1.6
LSU -1.6
.
Texas -13.4
TexasAM 13.4

Nebraska -7.6
Colorado 7.6

OklahomaState 1.1
Oklahoma -1.1

TexasTech -17.1
Baylor 17.1

Missouri -5.4
Kansas 5.4

Arizona -7.2
ArizonaState 7.2

WashingtonState 11.1
Washington -11.1

UCLA 0.9
USC -0.9

Good Luck!

This week’s BrewBrain spreads:

Visitor BB
Home Spread

Packers -8.5
Lions

Raiders 10.7
Cowboys

Giants -1.7
Broncos

Buccaneers 9.1
Falcons

Dolphins -2.1
Bills

Browns 11.5
Bengals

Seahawks -5.5
Rams

Panthers 4.9
Jets

Redskins 6.5
Eagles

Colts -4.6
Texans

Chiefs 7.6
Chargers

Jaguars 4.1
49ers

Cardinals -5.1
Titans

Bears 6.9
Vikings

Steelers 2.0
Ravens

Patriots 2.3
Saints

As always, for blogging purposes, I’ll be tracking against the ESPN Pigskin Pick’em game spreads. Real money goes on favorable spreads I can get at -115 or better.

Pulled out a winner in the end, making for a very nice day.  While Milwaukee appeared to blow their game (judging from watching scores tick on my computer screen), Miami pulled out a very nice dog winner for me.  Philadelphia gave a hint of hope as well.

In the end, I finished +21.29% on the day.  The roll continues.  Sometime soon a hefty favorite will lose and I’ll take a beating.

Today’s winners:  Charlotte,  Heat, Kings
Today’s losers: Clippers, Philly, Detroit, Milwaukee, Golden State

Light day tomorrow - only two games.  Hopefully some value to be had.

Custom Money Lines for 11/25/09:

25-Nov BB ML

Toronto 432
Charlotte -432

LAClippers 100
Indiana 100

Miami 288
Orlando -288

Philadelphia 582
Boston -582

Cleveland 100
Detroit 100

Denver -288
Minnesota 288

Milwaukee 100
NewOrleans 100

Dallas 147
Houston -147

GoldenState 1025
SanAntonio -1025

Memphis 1250
Phoenix -1250

NewJersey 2500
Portland -2500

NewYork 282
Sacramento -282

I’ve got Charlotte, Clippers, Miami, Philadelphia, Detroit, Milwaukee, Golden State and Sacramento. I found no value in the other games.

Very good day today.  I had three plays:

Winners: Washington, Oklahoma City
Losers: New York Knicks

Results in a +81.65% day.

Full slate of 12 games to pick through tomorrow morning.

Here’s what I’ve got for today.  Not any value in three of these:

24-Nov BB ML

Philadelphia 279
Washington -279

Indiana 179
Toronto -179

GoldenState 1367
Dallas -1367

NewJersey 1200
Denver -1200

OklahomaCity 179
Utah -179

NewYork 573
LALakers -573

I’ve got Washington, OKC and New York. The other games had little to no value in the lines I was offered.

Winners: Portland, Clippers
Losers: Sacramento, Milwaukee

Net +14.28% on invested capital.

6 more games tomorrow. I’ll try to post my lines before I head to work.