BrewBrain Sports Investing

Well, sort of. 

I have been trying to crack the tough nut that is horse race handicapping.  It is said, likely with accuracy, that between 1% - 5% of all people who bet on horse races more than occasionally make money.  I took that as a challenge.  I believe I have cracked that nut.

I don’t know that I’m a winning horseplayer over the long haul quite yet, because I have not logged enough races to know.  However, I believe I have developed a sound, logical, scientific strategy that should result in a sustainable, positive ROI.  How positive?  I don’t know yet, but I’m expecting (hoping!) a flat bet ROI of between 10% and 25% on win bets only.

I only have early results and a thin sample of back-tested races, but the results so far are encouraging.  It has taken me several months, a lot of experimentation, and a ton of brain cells to do it, but I think I’m there.

Through 50 backtested races at Golden Gate Fields, I logged a hit rate of 14% and a positive ROI of 11.4%.  Through 25 “real” bets at Bay Meadows and Turf Paradise, I’ve got a hit rate of 16% and a real ROI of 22.8%.

These are obviously teeny tiny little samples, but so far the results are encouraging, especially considering the near misses (oh, those 9/1 head bobs!).  In theory, given what I’m doing, I expect to win somewhere around 16% - 18% of the races I wager on, with an ROI between 12% - 26%.  That spread looks pretty wide, but it is the difference between hitting 16% and 18% of the races at average odds of 6/1.  So far, my hit rate is towards the low end of expectations, but my average odds are slightly higher.

I plan to track 100 wagers and then either get really excited or not.  If I get really excited, it’ll take a few hundred more races before I lock in a big stupid grin on my face.

In the mean time, my confirmed money-making pasttime has taken a back seat.  I’ve been trying to play a little poker here and there, but figuring out the races has been taking up my before bed time.  Beer drinking seems to have an effect on the successful outcome of both ventures, and not in a positive way.  I have several bottles stacked up in the refrigerator that need my attention, not to mention the five gallons of pale ale sitting in a carboy that should have been bottled a few weeks ago.  I guess this blog may be turning a corner of sorts, eh? 

Well, if this horse stuff really does work out, maybe I can make it easy for a few of you to make a buck or two with no effort while you drink your beer.  I’ll need testers in order to determine whether I’ve got a marketable product or not.

Random Thought:  How is it possible the word “blog” gets nailed by the spell checker in a blog?

Later,

BrewBrain