BrewBrain Sports Investing

Alright, I’ve got Week 6 of the NFL in the books, but I need to call an audible first.  I thunk me up a piece of information I thought might be important for football handicapping, plugged it into the 2008 season data and checked things out.  Turns out I improved 5 games over the course of 2008, for a 2% increase in pick awesomeness.  The results are similar if not better so far in 2009.  So, since we’re not tracking actual results this year, but developing a process that will be used next year, I’m bumping my stats as if I had been using the new algorithms all along.  The usable data is more important than anything right now.

So, with the new stuff, tonight’s win made me 7-7 on the week for 50%.  The new season totals are  52-38 for 57.78%.

By the way, I did not see improvement at the college level. This could be because of a lack of games sampled, or it could be the game just plays somewhat differently given differences in talent level on the teams, etc.  My entire process involves assuming ~relative~ parity, which is why I play only conference college games.  There may not be enough relative parity for my current method to beat college football.  We’ll see.  Yay paper trading!